Luxury Property Market Predictions for 2026 and 2027: London, Dubai, and Beyond

The luxury property markets that matter most to our buyers — London, Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and the Caribbean — are all entering 2026 in different phases of the same cycle. London is showing signs of renewed momentum after years of repricing. Dubai is transitioning from explosive growth to sustainable appreciation. Abu Dhabi is emerging as a serious alternative to its neighbour. And the Caribbean branded residence market is expanding faster than at any point in history.

Having operated across these markets and tracked buyer behaviour through our own campaigns and audience data, here is our honest assessment of what to expect over the next 18 months.

London: Prime Central Recovery Accelerates

Prime central London has spent the best part of a decade repricing after the stamp duty surcharge changes, Brexit uncertainty, and the pandemic. In real terms, many PCL properties are still 15 to 20 per cent below their 2014 peaks. This extended correction has created genuine value for buyers entering the market now, particularly international purchasers benefiting from a competitive pound.

Transaction volumes in the two million pound and above bracket have strengthened through 2025, and new development launches are being met with stronger absorption rates. We expect this momentum to continue through 2026, with prices in prime areas growing 3 to 5 per cent, and certain micro-markets — particularly Nine Elms, Battersea, and emerging fringe-prime locations — outperforming as infrastructure completions drive buyer confidence.

The wildcard for London is interest rates. If the Bank of England continues cutting through 2026, domestic buyer activity will accelerate and push prices higher, particularly in the one to three million pound bracket where most purchases are mortgage-dependent. For cash buyers and international investors, the current window represents an attractive entry point before rate-driven demand fully returns.

Dubai: Moderation, Not Decline

Dubai’s residential market delivered exceptional growth over the past three years, with prices rising over 78 per cent through the current cycle. That pace was never sustainable, and 2026 marks the transition to a more measured phase. Knight Frank projects 3 per cent growth in the prime segment, while broader forecasts from Cushman and Wakefield suggest 5 to 8 per cent across the wider market. This is moderation, not correction.

The key dynamic for 2026 is supply. Around 120,000 to 130,000 new units are scheduled for delivery, which will put pressure on prices in oversupplied segments, particularly lower-tier apartments in secondary locations. However, prime communities with limited supply — Palm Jumeirah, Emirates Hills, Dubai Hills Estate — will continue to appreciate because they cannot be easily replicated. For investors, selectivity becomes more important than it has been in recent years.

The ultra-luxury segment continues to outperform dramatically. Dubai recorded more sales above ten million dollars than any other city globally in Q4 2025, with 143 deals worth $2.5 billion in a single quarter. This reflects genuine wealth migration into Dubai and is a structural trend, not a speculative one.

Abu Dhabi: The Quiet Outperformer

Abu Dhabi deserves far more attention than it receives from UK investors. The emirate’s residential market delivered a record year in 2025, with total sales reaching approximately AED 142 billion — a 47 per cent increase in value year-on-year. Residential prices rose around 30 per cent in some areas, with demand concentrated in Al Reem Island, Yas Island, and Saadiyat Island.

Crucially, Abu Dhabi’s supply pipeline is far more constrained than Dubai’s, with only around 6,500 new units forecast for delivery in 2026. This supply-demand imbalance, combined with strong population growth and employment creation, suggests continued price appreciation through 2026 and into 2027. For investors seeking UAE exposure with less competition and more predictable growth, Abu Dhabi warrants serious consideration.

Caribbean: Supply Cannot Keep Pace

The Caribbean luxury market is defined by scarcity. Unlike London or Dubai, you cannot build a hundred new developments across Grand Cayman or Turks and Caicos. Planning restrictions, environmental protections, and the sheer geography of small islands mean that new luxury supply enters the market very slowly. When a Mandarin Oriental or Four Seasons does launch a residential project, the limited inventory creates both urgency and long-term appreciation.

We expect branded residences in prime Caribbean locations to continue appreciating at 5 to 10 per cent annually through 2026 and 2027, driven by wealth migration, the remote working trend, and the tax advantages these jurisdictions offer. The buyer profile is shifting too — younger, tech-enabled, and more willing to split their time across multiple international bases rather than committing to a single primary residence.

What This Means for Buyers Right Now

For London buyers, the message is clear: the repricing is largely done and the recovery is underway. Waiting for prices to fall further in prime central London is, in our view, likely to be a losing strategy. The best new-build developments are selling well, and the strongest units are going early.

For Dubai investors, 2026 is about quality over quantity. The days of buying almost anything and watching it appreciate 20 per cent are behind us. Focus on established communities, reputable developers, and properties with genuine tenant or end-user demand. Abu Dhabi deserves a place in your research if it is not there already.

For Caribbean buyers, act on branded residences early. These developments are small, demand is global, and once they are sold out, the next comparable project may be years away.

Across all markets, the theme for 2026 and 2027 is the same: quality, selectivity, and informed decision-making will be rewarded. The era of passive appreciation is giving way to a market that rewards active research and expert guidance. That is where we come in.